Commentators in Russia and the West have often focused on the geopolitics of the Belarusian situation, arguing that Moscow wants a friendly regime in Belarus in order to expand its military presence there and thus be in a position to project power into Central Europe and deeper westward. Moreover, the Kremlin allegedly fears that the establishment of a pro-Western regime in Minsk would have the effect of pushing Russia further to the east, further isolating the latter from the outside world (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, October 23, 2018, and May 3, 2016).
Those are entirely reasonable inferences given what President Vladimir Putin and others in Moscow have said and done over the last several years, let alone in recent weeks, but they are inherently longer-term considerations and more global in scope than the factors Moscow is thinking about in the short term, according to Russian analyst Vadim Avva.