Author: Vladimir Socor/Eurasia Daily Monitor

In 2023, Russia redoubled efforts in its two-fold war in Ukraine: against Ukraine itself and against the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Moscow openly declares this dual agenda. Most Western governments, nevertheless, remain unwilling to recognize that Russia is also at war with them in Ukraine. With Ukraine as the central...

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) made clear in 2023 that Ukraine could not expect to be offered a sought-after membership plan so long as Russia’s war continues. Any decision on this matter has been postponed until “after the war.” The NATO summit in Vilnius confirmed this policy (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 13, 17,...

Russia has practically turned the Orga­nization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) into a hostage, ruthlessly instrumentalizing the organization’s consensus rules. The OSCE’s year-end, ministerial-level meeting, held in Skopje, Macedo­nia, on November 29 and 30, highlighted Russia’s stranglehold over the OSCE as never before (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, November 29, 30). Western diplomacy hoped...

The West’s inadequate arming of Ukraine predetermined costly failures for Kyiv’s counteroffensive. The effort to dislodge Russian forces from their entrenched positions in southeastern Ukraine has become a difficult endeavor both militarily and politically (Euromaidan Press, Novem­ber 6). Kyiv felt obligated to meet unrealistic expectations and, in particular, to demonstrate that it deserved continuing Western...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelens­kyy has ended a debate that he himself had helped spark. Mr. Zelenskyy told the nation on November 6 that Ukraine cannot hold elections while fighting a war for survival: “This is a time for cohesion, not division and wrangling. … Not for distracting society with politicking or the pursuit of particular...

Part I Addressing an expanded session of the Russian Security Council on October 30, President Vladimir Putin outlined a new concept for the struggle against the West (Kremlin.ru, October 30). Putin is seeking to enlist the Global South (not his term) into this struggle alongside Russia. The main novelties are: first, positioning Russia itself at...

Part I Russian President Vladimir Putin has sternly rebuffed his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyp Erdogan’s ambitions to play peacemaker in the Russo-Ukrainian war and partially ease Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain exports. Receiving Mr. Erdogan in Sochi on September 4, Putin made clear that he had no use for Mr. Erdogan’s efforts unless they aligned...

Ukrainian naval combat drones are demonstrating rapid improvement in their technical characteristics (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, November 8, 2022; June 2, 13). Ukrainian-made drones – uncrewed submerged, semisubmersible or surface vehicles (USVs) – have struck several significant Russian targets in close sequence in recent weeks. This unprecedented series of successful hits is a result of...

Part I Western naval powers have been shut out of the Black Sea until further notice. This is an extraordinary situation, exceedingly rare in modern history. No warship from a non-riparian country has entered the Black Sea since December 2021. And no naval exercise with Western participation has been held in the Black Sea since...

( Part I ) The Vilnius summit’s communiqué (July 11) agreed on by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members slightly advances Ukraine’s membership prospects by mentioning the possibility of an “invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance” (Nato.int, July 11, Paragraph 11). The word “invitation” with respect to Ukraine is unprecedented in a high-level...

How to respond to Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine was the central question confronting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) summit of heads of state in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12. With the war well into its second year, the alliance again fell short of adopting eminently reasonable proposals that had been aired in...

Russia’s war aims in Ukraine fall into two main categories: pre-programmed goals, which were announced from the start of the war (still being paid some lip service to date), and opportunity goals, which the Kremlin might have anticipated when planning the war but which crystallized gradually as the war unfolded (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, March...